Jihadist insurgencies in the Liptako-Gourma region

The Liptako-Gourma region, where Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger converge, is an epicentre of jihadist insurgencies, political instability, and humanitarian crises. Since 2020, military coups in these countries have strained international relations, leading to the withdrawal of armed forces from France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The last American troops left Niger on September 15, 2024. In response, the three nations formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to enhance military cooperation and economic ties. Russia, through its Wagner Group, has stepped in as a new security partner in the region. This situation update provides an overview of the latest events, analysis and trends.

JNIM attack in the Malian capital, Bamako

On Tuesday, September 17, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated Salafi-jihadist group, launched an attack on the 101 military air base near the Modibo Keita airport and the police training school in Faladiè. This resulted in several soldiers being killed and injured. Additionally, both the presidential plane and a World Food Programme (WFP) aircraft were targeted and damaged. The airport was closed for several hours.

AIRPORT ATTACK

"The terrorist group, Nusrat al-Islam, broadcasts exclusive photos documenting the presence of its fighters inside the Modibo Keita military airport in the heart of the Malian capital."

POLICE TRAINING SCHOOL ATTACK

"On 17/09 from 5:30 a.m. and throughout the morning, a prepared attack, claimed by #JNIM , took place at #Bamako. Two places were particularly targeted: the gendarmerie school in the #Faladiè district and the 101 air base #FAMa near the M. Keita airport #Sénou"

Battles in Tinzaouaten in northern Mali

On July 25th, the Touareg coalition Cadre Stratégique pour la Défense du Peuple de l'Azawad (CSP-DPA) fighters ambushed a convoy transporting Malian (FAMa) and Wagner soldiers. The subsequent battle (25th-27th) claimed the lives of dozens of FAMa and Wagner soldiers. It is reported as the most significant loss yet faced by Wagner in the region. Based on the available evidence, CSP-DPA and JNIM appear to have coordinated their attacks on FAMa and Wagner forces, with CSP-DPA striking from the south and JNIM from the north, despite CSP-DPA's denials of collaboration.

ATTACK AGAINST FAMA AND WAGNER FORCES:

"[...]  Thursday, July 25, 2024, a FAMa patrol in the area of ​​Tinzaouatene, a town located 233 km northeast of Kidal on the Algerian border, was the "subject of a terrorist attack" [...]"

WAGNER INVOLVEMENT:

"[...] The fighters of the 13th assault detachment of the group fought fierce battles with militants in the vicinity of the village of Tin Zautin, near the border with Algeria, from July 22 to 27. [...]"

JNIM INVOLVEMENT:

"#Russia / #Mali (#Sahel) 🇷🇺🇲🇱: #JNIM (Al-Qaeda) conducted an ambush against #Wagner Group in #Tadelok, #Kidal Region"

In retaliation, FAMa and Wagner launched Operation Vengeance.

OPERATION VENGEANCE:

"Today, 08/27, a very large column of armored vehicles from the #FAMa and Russian mercenaries 🇷🇺 from #Wagner is in formation to leave the bases of #Gao to go to the north. 🔹 The name of the operation is "Vengeance" and it is likely that this column will go to #Tinzaouaten."

Malian forces, with support from Burkina Faso, conducted several airstrikes, reportedly aimed at strategic insurgent positions, however several reports of civilian casualties have emerged. Bayraktar TB2 UAVs were used in the attacks. Turkey recently delivered several more to the Malian government (see this Twitter/X post).

Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) usage:

"A long-range Bayraktar AKINCI drone (Turkish-made 🇹🇷 ) belonging to #Burkina 🇧🇫 and piloted by #FAMa / #Wagner , carried out 2 strikes. 🔸 A first on a pharmacy, killing the manager. 🔸 A 2nd on the crowd generated by his death. 🔴 The toll is 26 dead, including 13 children aged between 6 and 13."

Escalation of deadly JNIM attacks

Last month, JNIM, which operates in all three countries, launched particularly deadly attacks in Barsalogho and Nassougou, Burkina Faso.

JNIM attack in Barsalogho:

"Civilians are among the dozens of people killed in an attack by militants in Burkina Faso [...] more than 100 wounded people were taken to the city’s largest medical centre.[...]"

JNIM attack in Nassougou:

"[...]  The #JNIM claims the death of more than 140 #FDS and the destruction of more than 100 vehicles including 7 armored vehicles. [...]"

Competing Islamic Jihadist presence

JNIM and Islamic State Sahel aimed to transform the governments of the Sahel region and to establish an Islamic State, collaborating between 2016 and 2019 in what is known as the Sahelian exception. However, the different tactical and operational approaches influenced by their international affiliations have set them apart. They are currently competing entities, spreading their activities into neighbouring nations, including Benin, Togo, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. Each is attempting to carve out an area of control, battling government and foreign forces, as well as each other and a host of non-aligned militias.

Since July 2023, Islamic State Sahel and JNIM have both taken advantage of an informal détente to improve their positions in the Liptako-Gourma region. JNIM boosted its own local profile among alienated civilians, and co-opted other militias in an effort to establish itself as the legitimate actor in the region.   

This also allowed Islamic State Sahel to strengthen its position in the area, and in bordering Niger. While these are not the rapid advances made by the Islamic State during 2014 in Iraq and Syria, it may be an attempt to create their own caliphate within the Sahel region, which typically draws far less external attention and support compared to the Middle East.

It should also be noted that the Islamic State is increasing in activity across the world, in:

• West Africa: Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP)

• Iraq and Syria: Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL)

• Pakistan and Afghanistan: Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)

This list is not exhaustive, with a concerning resurgence of the Islamic State, and increase in activities by other Jihadist groups in various regions. This at a time where western militaries are moving away from counter-insurgency (COIN) operations, to preparing for conventional warfare, as is occurring in Ukraine.

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