Ukraine war latest: 18th of December 2024
Wednesday 18 December 2024
In the latest developments of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, significant military and political manoeuvres are shaping the landscape as both sides prepare for a challenging new year.
In the latest developments of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, significant military and political manoeuvres are shaping the landscape as both sides prepare for a challenging new year.
In June, President Putin established a condition for peace negotiations, demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts—a stance reiterated by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov on Tuesday. President-elect Donald Trump, set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, has expressed a desire to negotiate a peace deal to end the war, raising concerns for those territories already under Russian control. The next few months may be critical for both parties as they seek territorial advantages ahead of any potential negotiations.
Uncrewed technological and tactical developments by Ukraine
In two separate operations, Ukraine utilised its indigenous uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to engage Russian targets in the Black Sea and Kerch Strait. While these vessels have been used to great effect before, both events showed a development of technology and tactics.
Firstly, Ukraine attacked Russian gas platforms in the Black Sea, using a co-ordinated air and naval strike. One-way attack USVs (OWA-USVs) approached the targets and deployed first-person (FPV) view uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), with this believed to be a first for this kind of USV and UAV integration. Some UAVs provided reconnaissance for the assault, while others engaged Russian defences on the platforms. The use of UAVs to soften defences allowed the OWA-USVs to impact the platforms unhindered, causing enormous damage.
Sea Baby USV launching FPV OWA-UAVs (top left) for engaging Russian defences (top right) and providing reconnaissance (bottom), while the Sea Baby's attack the gas platforms (centre left and centre right)
Secondly, two USVs in the Kerch Strait engaged Russian aircraft attempting to destroy them, using a reported auto-targeting machine gun. Their onboard electro-optical infrared (EOIR) camera caught the action as the highly manoeuvrable USVs opened fire on an Mi-8 helicopter, an Su-30 Flanker and patrol boats. Previous Sea Baby's have been seen fitted with R-73 air-to-air missiles (AAMs), modified to act as 'FrankenSAMs' to provide localised air defence, however this is the first known instance of a machine gun being fitted.
Sea Baby USV engaging an Mi-8 (left and centre) and Su-30 Flanker (right) with a machine gun (tracer circled in yellow)
METIS OSINT events |
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Russian efforts to retake Kursk
Russian forces appear to be pushing hard to retake the Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk Oblast, likely having a three-fold aim of: retaking lost Russian territory; cutting off and/or destroying some of Ukraine's best units in Kursk; and weakening Ukraine's bargaining power in any future negotiations.
Some recent events have involved the engaging of Ukrainian Challenger 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) with FPV OWA-UAVs. Both tanks are static and there is currently no imagery showing any post-blast effects. It is therefore unknown whether the MBTs are damaged, destroyed or simply abandoned.
CHALLENGER 2
BRITISH MAIN BATTLE TANK
METIS OSINT events |
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Russian FPV drones targeting British-made Challenger 2 tanks in the Kursk region. |
Prince Vandal intercepts 2 Challenger 2 tanks at the Sumy Kursk border. |
Ukraine is still in the fight in and around Kursk however, using munitions provided to them by NATO and other countries, such as: GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), OGi-7MA anti-personnel (AP) projectile and Bulspike-AP.
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US AIR-DROPPED BOMB |
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BULGARIAN AP PROJECTILE |
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BULGARIAN AP PROJECTILE |
METIS OSINT events |
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A flurry of activity at Russian bases in Syria may signal the departure of their forces, after the fall from power of Bashar Al-Assad. The abandonment of Khmeimim air base and the Port of Tartus would have a significant effect on Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa. It could, however, provide additional resources that could be deployed to the war in Ukraine, which Russia likely values higher, given their limited efforts to support Al-Assad during the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive. However, there are reports that some or all of these may be redeployed to Libya instead, allowing their current operations to continue in the region.
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References in METIS
Source Information
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