Newsflash: Strike on Chernobyl Number Four Reactor

At approximately 0200 on February 14th 2025, there was a blast at the New Safe Confinement (NSC) surrounding the remains of No. 4 reactor at the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant. A section of the structure was damaged in the incident and was briefly on fire, with emergency services quickly extinguishing the flames.

Statements made by Ukrainian authorities have indicated the blast was caused by a Russian one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicle (OWA-UAV) that struck near the top of the structure.

Identification of OWA-UAV

Imagery from the scene has shown a damaged engine underneath the entry point on the NSC. This engine is believed to be from the OWA-UAV and has been compared with known designs to identify its origin. The design strongly indicates that the OWA-UAV was a Russian Geran-2 (Ru: Герань-2) as seen in the comparison below.

Engine from Chernobyl No. 4 reactor NSC from 14 February 2025 (left) and engine from crashed Geran-2 found in Salcia, Moldova on 12th February 2025 (right)

Geran-2 wingtip fences from Salcia, Moldova on 12th February 2025 (Event ID: 422085)

Post-blast and Component Analysis

Post-blast, and component, imagery collected by Ukrainian authorities has provided further information for identification. Wingtip fences reportedly found at the scene have clear Герань 2 (Geran 2) markings. 

Geran-2 wingtip fences from No. 4 reactor Chernobyl, source: Ukrainian Security Services

The markings show it is a 'Y' (Ru: Ы) series Geran-2, which is known to be fitted with at least three warhead variants, these are: the original Iranian design in the Shahed-136; the OFZBCh-50 (RU: ОФЗБЧ-50); and TBBCh-50M (Ru: ТББЧ-50М). The imagery of the impact and subsequent fire damage would suggest that the warhead incorporated incendiary elements, indicating the OFZBCh-50, which is designated as fragmentation (O), high explosive (F), incendiary (Z) by the Russian armed forces. Extensive fragmentation strikes can be seen on the outer surface of, and within, the NSC.

Images from NSC: CCTV footage of immediate blast (top left), internal view once fire extinguished (top right), external view once fire extinguished (bottom left) and external view with fire burning (bottom right)

Additional Analysis

The strike on Chernobyl’s No. 4 reactor damaged the outer skin of the New Safe Confinement (NSC), a $1.7 billion structure designed to contain radiation from the 1986 disaster. Completed in 2017 after decades of international effort, the NSC is crucial for preventing further radioactive release and ensuring long-term environmental safety.

 While the inner containment reportedly remains intact, any breach to the NSC undermines its protective function, potentially accelerating structural degradation over time. Targeting this critical nuclear safeguard violates international norms, signalling a disregard for global nuclear security and raises concerns about future escalation.