Latest on Ukraine war

In the latest developments of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, significant military and political manoeuvres are shaping the landscape as both sides prepare for a challenging new year.

In June, President Putin established a condition for peace negotiations, demanding the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts—a stance reiterated by Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov on Tuesday. President-elect Donald Trump, set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, has expressed a desire to negotiate a peace deal to end the war, raising concerns for those territories already under Russian control. The next few months may be critical for both parties as they seek territorial advantages ahead of any potential negotiations.

Uncrewed technological and tactical developments by Ukraine

In two separate operations, Ukraine utilised its indigenous uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to engage Russian targets in the Black Sea and Kerch Strait. While these vessels have been used to great effect before, both events showed a development of technology and tactics.

 Firstly, Ukraine attacked Russian gas platforms in the Black Sea, using a co-ordinated air and naval strike. One-way attack USVs (OWA-USVs) approached the targets and deployed first-person (FPV) view drones , with this believed to be a first for this kind of USV and UAV integration. Some UAVs provided reconnaissance for the assault, while others engaged Russian defences on the platforms. The use of UAVs to soften defences allowed the OWA-USVs to impact the platforms unhindered, causing enormous damage.

Sea Baby USV launching FPV drones  (top left) for engaging Russian defences (top right) and providing reconnaissance (bottom), while the Sea Baby's attack the gas platforms (centre left and centre right)

Secondly, two USVs in the Kerch Strait engaged Russian aircraft attempting to destroy them, using a reported auto-targeting machine gun. Their onboard electro-optical infrared (EOIR) camera caught the action as the highly manoeuvrable USVs opened fire on an Mi-8 helicopter, an Su-30 Flanker and patrol boats. Previous Sea Baby's have been seen fitted with R-73 air-to-air missiles (AAMs), modified to act as 'FrankenSAMs' to provide localised air defence, however this is the first known instance of a machine gun being fitted.

Sea Baby USV engaging an Mi-8 (left and centre) and Su-30 Flanker (right) with a machine gun (tracer circled in yellow)

Sea Baby USV	FPV drone	MI-8

Russian efforts to retake Kursk Oblast

Some recent events have involved the engaging of Ukrainian Challenger 2 main battle tanks (MBTs) with FPV drones. Both tanks are static and there is currently no imagery showing any post-blast effects. It is therefore unknown whether the MBTs are damaged, destroyed or simply abandoned.

Challenger 2

British Main Battle Tank

Ukraine is still in the fight in and around Kursk Oblast however, using munitions provided to them by NATO and other countries, such as: GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB), OGi-7MA anti-personnel (AP) projectile and Bulspike-AP.

GBU-39 SDB	OGi-7MA	Bulspike-AP
US air-dropped bomb	Bulgarian AP Projectile	Bulgarian AP Projectile

According to Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder, North Korean soldiers  are fighting in Kursk Oblast with Russian forces and have suffered casualties. Their presence will complicate the geopolitical situation, and provide Russia with much-needed reinforcements, without expending more of their own personnel in continued assaults.  

A flurry of activity at Russian bases in Syria may signal the departure of their forces, after the fall from power of Bashar Al-Assad. The abandonment of Khmeimim air base and the Port of Tartus would have a significant effect on Russian influence in the Middle East and Africa. It could, however, provide additional resources that could be deployed to the war in Ukraine, which Russia likely values higher, given their limited efforts to support Al-Assad during the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive. However, there are reports that some or all of these may be redeployed to Libya instead, allowing their current operations to continue in the region.

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