Israel-Hezbollah Conflict: Developments following the 1st October incursion

On October 1, 2024, Israel initiated a ground incursion of southern Lebanon. Israeli officials framed the incursion as essential for securing northern Israel against Hezbollah's rocket, missile and uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks. The operation aimed to disrupt Hezbollah's military capacity and enable displaced residents to return to their homes in northern Israel. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) are currently conducting ground operations in southern Lebanon, as well as an extensive campaign of airstrikes against Hezbollah positions across the country. 

Although the IDF have mentioned removing roadblocks that currently block citizens from driving along roads considered at risk of Hezbollah missile and rocket attacks, residents have yet to return home. Moreover, since October 1st, Hezbollah has in fact increased the geographical scope of its attacks. It is increasingly targeting areas deeper within Israel, most notably with several attacks against IDF sites in and around Tel Aviv. 

Munitions Caches in Southern Lebanon

IDF ground forces have reportedly captured large quantities of Hezbollah’s arsenal within southern Lebanon. These have included advanced anti-tank guided weapons (ATGW) systems, such as the Tharallah and the latest Russian export Kornet-EM, which have been reported on in Fenix Insight bulletins. Other munitions include rockets, mortar bombs, rocket assisted projectiles etc. 

Captured 9M133-1, 9M133M-2 and 9M133F-1 missiles from the Kornet-EM ATGW system - sources:  LINK, LINK and LINK

Captured Tharallah (ATGW) system, utilizing the portable ground-launch system (GLS) and optical sight from the 9K128M-1 Kornet-EM ATGW system - source: LINK

Ongoing Hezbollah Attacks

Hezbollah has continued to employ one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs), including a new and currently unknown model, as well as rocket and missile artillery.

New and currently unknown Hezbollah OWA-UAV - source: LINK

It is known that Hezbollah is supplied by Iran, with the Haseb-1 (also known as the Fadjr-1) and the Ababil-T (also known as the Mirsad-1) being examples of this, however there appears to be an expansion in munitions supply from Syria.

ABABIL-T, OWA-UAV

#Lebanon / #Palestine / #Israel: #Hezbollah carried out multiple attacks against #IDF Glilot Base in #TelAviv. Group used #Iran-designed 'Mirsad-1' ('Ababil-2T') kamikaze drones and 302mm 'Nasr-2' guided missiles (based on #Syria-made 'Khaibar-1' rockets).

HASEB-1, ROCKET ARTILLERY

#Palestine / #Israel: Al-Qassam Brigades (#HAMAS) carried out rocket attack against #IDF Troops in #Netzarim Axis, #Gaza Strip. Group seemingly used common multiple #Iran-made 107mm Fadjr-1 HE artillery rockets.

SAYYAD, OWA-UAV

#Lebanon / #Palestine / #Israel: #Hezbollah carried out multiple attacks against Israeli locations. Group used #Iran-made 'Shahed-101' drones, 'Mirsad-1' ('Ababil-2T') drones and 302mm 'Nasr-2' guided missiles — based on #Syria-made  'Khaibar-1' artillery rockets.

The Syrian M-80 and M-302 rockets appear to be increasing in their use, likely in an effort to keep up the pressure on Israel as other rocket stocks are depleted, destroyed or captured. 

M-80, UNGUIDED MULTIPLE LAUNCH ROCKET SYSTEM (MLRS)

#Lebanon / #Palestine / #Israel : #Hezbollah carried out multiple attacks against #IDF positions near the border. Group used #Iran-made  60mm HM-14 mortar with M61 HE bombs, 9M22U 'Grad' pattern artillery rockets and #Syria-made 'Hydra' pattern"M-80" rockets.

M-302, GUIDED MISSILE AND UNGUIDED ROCKET MLRS

#Lebanon / #Palestine / #Israel: #Hezbollah carried out rocket strike against the Krayot neighborhood in #Haifa. The attacks as carried out with #Syria-made 🇸🇾 302mm 'Khaibar-1' artillery rockets (designated as 'Fadi-2' by Hezbollah).

ELEPHANT, IMPROVISED ROCKET ASSISTED MUNITIONS

#Lebanon / #Palestine / #Israel: #Hezbollah carried out multiple attacks against #IDF positions near the border. Group used "Burkan"  heavy rocket (based on 107mm HE rocket), #Syria-made 'Hydra'  pattern "M-80"  rockets and locally-made kamikaze drone.

While the IDF has degraded the capabilities of Hezbollah, through the use of air strikes, a ground incursion and the pager/walkie talkie attacks, it appears that the reported aim of making northern Israel safe has not been achieved.

 While the capture of large numbers of short-range, direct and indirect munitions, has been achieved, Hezbollah has switched to longer-range attacks against military and civilian targets. The overall number of rocket and OWA-UAV strikes is staying steady, preventing civilians from safely living in the area. 

 The Syrian involvement causes further complications to an already complex situation. The provision of Syrian munitions, as well as being the likely source of Russian munitions, is maintaining Hezbollah's capability. It is possible that Israel will see this as direct involvement by Syria, and make an attempt to cut off this supply line using air strikes or even ground forces within Syrian territory.